A Statistical Comparison of Fatal Accident Rates in Boeing and Airbus Aircraft

This research project investigates whether there is a statistically significant difference in fatal accident rates between Boeing and Airbus aircraft. Rather than comparing raw accident counts, the analysis uses aircraft deliveries as a measure of exposure, allowing differences in the relative scale of the two manufacturers to be incorporated into the comparison.

Fatal accidents between 2005 and 2024 are modelled using a Poisson distribution, with maximum likelihood estimation used to estimate accident rates and a Wald hypothesis test used to compare the two manufacturers. The analysis finds a statistically significant difference under the model, while critically examining limitations in the available data and discussing how more representative exposure measures and more sophisticated modelling could improve the analysis.